The dry bulk market enters 2025 on a weak note, and historically, this often means January tends to be slower than usual. However, the stage is set for a rebound as mid-February approaches, thanks to several key factors.
🚢 Capesize vessels are facing a slow start, but there's a significant indicator that a Capesize rally could soon materialize.
Currently, a record number of VLOCs (Very Large Ore Carriers) are heading toward Brazil, and this has previously marked turning points for the market in late August 2022, early September 2023, and late August 2023. As these vessels position themselves, it will take some time for the space to clear for Capes to take charge.
Additionally, iron ore prices are on an upward trend, signaling firming market conditions starting late February and running through March.
🌱 The Panamax market has begun 2025 with a similar slow pace, with challenges in both the Atlantic and Pacific regions.
In the Atlantic, the initial firmness due to limited New Year tonnage soon gave way to flat levels. In the South Atlantic, oversupply led owners to offer discounted rates to secure cover.
In the Pacific, rates struggled, especially Indonesia, where limited cargo volumes and a growing tonnage list have pressured the market.
NoPac grains (North Pacific grains) and petcoke cargoes (Petroleum coke) provided some support, but Aussie rounds lagged behind. Despite these challenges, there’s optimism as ballasters are expected to head toward Brazil, bringing hope for a recovery during February’s soybean export season.
🌍 Meanwhile, the Supramax and Handysize markets have also struggled, experiencing subdued activity and downward pressure on rates, largely due to the impact of the holiday season and limited demand across both the Atlantic and Asia.
In the Atlantic, oversupply in the Continent-Mediterranean, South Atlantic, and US Gulf regions has kept rates soft.
In Asia, the market has been divided between prompt vessels facing pressure and others waiting for a better outlook. More activity is needed to shift the market sentiment here.
1 Year T/C Dry Bulk
🚨 What’s Next?
Looking ahead, the Capesize market should see a rebound by mid-February. With VLOCs heading to Brazil and iron ore prices increasing, there’s hope that a rally will materialize.
📉 For Panamax and smaller vessels, the market is likely to stay cautious until February, especially as Brazil’s soybean exports kick off and new cargo volumes hit the market. The weakness in the market may also persist until a more robust global trade recovery takes hold, especially as China’s economic conditions remain a mixed bag.
2025 also brings a cautious outlook for the overall dry bulk sector, with 33 million dwt of new ships slated for delivery. Demand growth needs to absorb this influx, but analysts are cautious, pointing out that cargo demand may not increase quickly enough to balance the new deliveries.
BDI Index 1Y
💬 Let’s connect!
What’s your outlook on the dry bulk market in 2025? Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t forget to like and share this post 📰 !
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